2024-25 IPV QB Tiers
These QB tiers are not personal opinions — they are a ranking and categorization of quarterbacks based solely on their IPV values and scores in the component categories ( Decision Making, Handling Pressure, Creativity and Execution ) from the 2024-25 NFL season. The 41 NFL quarterbacks charted from the 2024-25 season are included along with 14 2025 NFL Draft prospects. Draft prospect IPV scores are based on games analyzed from the 2024-25 college season.
The top 5 QBs in IPV and only players to record positive scores in all 4 categories make up the Elite tier. None of these players are flawless, however. Allen and Mahomes have lower Decision Making scores; Herbert and Burrow lack the elite Creativity of the other 3; and Jackson has the lowest Execution of the group by a good amount and a negative Pinpoint% Over Expected despite having the highest IPV. This demonstrates the importance of evaluating the entirety of a QB's game.
Some analysts were low on Allen and Mahomes as prospects, deeming their play styles reckless and unable to translate to the pro game, while others panned Jackson's accuracy — going so far as to suggest he should switch positions to wide receiver. An element of these critiques can be seen in their IPV scores, but when put in the context of all the positives they bring to the table, these deficiencies are minor and tolerable.
These players are ranked #6-9 in IPV with impressive performances across the board but lacking the elite athleticism and playmaking skills of the players a tier above them. Goff epitomizes this tier, posting the lowest Creativity score in the NFL but the 6th-highest IPV. Stafford and Love are definitely creative players but it doesn't show up in their IPV data — the ability to change arm angles and fit the ball into tight windows will show up under Execution, while plays charted under Creativity are usually ones in which the QB extends a play with his legs and creates something out of nothing.
The outlier here is Bryce Young . He has a small sample size (only 12 starts in 2024) and the highest single-game IPV performance of +12.37 vs the Chiefs in Week 12 — a full 1.94 points higher than the second-highest scored game. His ranking here is likely an aberration buoyed by a few uncharacteristically strong performances, but it would be interesting to see what he looks like in a better situation. He's been on a bad Carolina team for his entire career yet still took the Panthers to the playoffs in 2025 and almost upset the Rams.
Tier 3 — Good But Variable
The quarterbacks in this tier are all between +0.67 and -0.24 in IPV/Game and are divided into 3 groups based on their scores in different categories. These players have intriguing qualities that separate them from the players below them but also more drawbacks than the players above them, making their production more highly dependent on the situation around them — making this the most controversial group to rank.
System Quarterbacks have a high Execution score but negative Decision Making — meaning they are less able than the average NFL starter to process defenses and arrive at the optimal decision, but when they are processing effectively, they can deliver quality passes much better than the average starter. These players can thrive in the right system that simplifies the game for them with enough talent on offense to just distribute the ball. System Quarterbacks can win a Super Bowl in the right situation (like Hurts in 2024 and potentially Darnold in 2025) but can look terrible when forced into a difficult environment (like Darnold on the Jets/Panthers or Smith on the Jets/Raiders).
Elite Game Managers have very high Decision Making scores — Rodgers ranks 2nd in the NFL, Purdy 4th — but low Execution. These players win with their mind, consistently solving the problems defenses present and arriving at the optimal solution. Rather than being the product of a system, these players ARE the system and can alleviate deficiencies in those around them. However, they are held back by subpar arm talent, accuracy, or mechanics.
Purdy is often labeled a "system quarterback" who only succeeds in Shanahan's QB-friendly offense. His film tells a different story — he manipulates defenders more than any other QB surveyed in 2024, unlocking passing windows that would be inaccessible to others. But he fell to the very last pick in the 2022 draft for a reason and simply lacks the arm talent of the players ranked above him.
Rodgers is one of the greatest pure throwers of all time but he's 42 and his arm isn't what it used to be. Subpar footwork — which likely didn't affect him earlier in his career due to his rare arm talent — now reduces his ability to deliver pinpoint passes in situations requiring precise ball placement. He remains a Hall of Fame mind, and is the only quarterback in recent memory to post solid production while playing for the New York Jets, showing how Elite Game Managers can survive in difficult environments.
These players have very high Creativity, very low Handling Pressure, or both — making them inconsistent performers capable of awe-inspiring highlights and baffling lowlights. The best way to ensure success with a Wildcard QB is to put him behind a strong offensive line that allows him time to make use of his playmaking ability while limiting the situations where he has to accept a loss.
Maye's IPV breakdown may shed light on his breakout 2025 season. He has a high Decision Making score and the 3rd-highest Misread% Below Expected. Forced to start as a rookie in a talent-poor New England situation, he avoided the pitfalls that bedeviled Mac Jones, minimizing negative plays and navigating decent production. His -0.47 Execution score on clean pocket attempts ballooned to -2.40 under pressure on far fewer attempts. The Patriots' offensive line jumping from 2nd-worst in PFF pass-block grade in 2024 to 6th-best in 2025 may have been the key catalyst.
Tagovailoa's high Execution and Pinpoint% Over Expected highlight that these metrics aren't merely a measure of arm talent — they evaluate everything that goes into distributing the football. Tua has a weak arm by NFL standards yet still fits the ball into tight windows thanks to elite anticipation, often releasing well before a receiver begins his break. What's holding him back isn't his arm but his inability to avoid pressure-induced negative plays — he posted the lowest Handling Pressure score in the NFL in 2024.
Tier 4 — Starter
Quarterbacks in this tier are all between -0.41 and -1.69 in IPV/Game. They have negative IPV scores placing them below the average NFL starter but are all in the top 30 overall (top 33 counting draft prospects) and should still be considered NFL starters rather than backups.
All these players have negative IPV scores without scoring particularly low or high in any category. They are solid players capable of being NFL starters but don't offer much more than that.
The most interesting name on this list is Trevor Lawrence . His IPV ratings provided no insight into the former generational prospect who had underwhelmed until 2025 — he has the lowest difference between maximum and minimum category score (-0.24 Handling Pressure vs -3.07 Execution) of any player. Jameis Winston is another unusual inclusion; his extreme downfield aggressiveness manifests simply as slightly below-average outcomes across the board.
These players have positive Decision Making scores but not the top-tier reading of an Elite Game Manager, while having low Execution scores. The exception is Daniel Jones , who has negative Decision Making but positive Handling Pressure to compensate for his negative Execution.
Jaxson Dart isn't typically thought of as a game manager, but he was the only draft prospect to post a positive Decision Making score while his Execution was in the bottom 5. If you believe in Dart's ability to deliver the football and think his low Execution score is a product of small sample size, his high Decision Making should be exciting — his IPV breakdown is similar to Drake Maye's. NFL Draft analyst Matt Waldman , creator of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, has questioned his ability to deliver pinpoint passes at deep ranges, and that shortcoming is reflected in his IPV data.
The first overall pick and highest-IPV quarterback in the 2025 draft class is in a category of his own. Ward has an exceptional ability to create out of structure — combining excellent athleticism, elite arm talent accessible at multiple arm angles and off-platform, and an eagerness to attack downfield and fit the ball into tight windows. However, his ability to perform within structure is a significant drawback right now. His IPV data underscores this: he recorded the 3rd-highest Creativity score per play of all quarterbacks (only behind Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson) but his Decision Making score is the 3rd-lowest, only topping Will Levis and Deshaun Watson.
Tier 5 — Backup
Quarterbacks in this tier are all between -2.32 and -5.51 in IPV/Game. They are all outside of the top 33 quarterbacks overall and should be considered NFL backups rather than starters.
These players have significant enough deficiencies in Decision Making and Execution to drop below NFL starter caliber, but not as severe as the other players in the Backup tier. They're reliable backups who can fill in for a starter and offer decent production with low risk but also low upside.
These players score decently in the other 3 categories but have very low Execution scores, denoting an inability to deliver pinpoint passes consistently. Can accuracy be improved over time with changes to a player's mechanics — or is it deeply ingrained and difficult to develop? If you believe the former, players in this tier could become quality starters. If the latter, they will likely be career backups.
These players all have solid playmaking ability but it is undermined by significant lapses in decision making. They have the raw talent of a starting NFL quarterback or better but need significant development to reach that level of production.
Note: Ignore Dak Prescott's inclusion here. He was injured in 2024 and his IPV values are likely just an aberration due to small sample size. He is the only player whose IPV scores do not describe his game at all and I would completely disregard 2024 IPV data for Dak Prescott.
Tier 6 — Project
Quarterbacks in this tier are all -6.44 or below in IPV/Game. They lack the ability to function in the NFL at even a backup level and should be regarded as developmental projects rather than players who can be relied on in live game action.
These players are unable to deliver the football at an NFL-caliber level and need to improve their fundamentals to become capable players in the league.
These players are underdeveloped and need significant improvement in the mental aspects of quarterbacking to become capable players in the NFL.
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